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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|